The San Antonio Spurs assured themselves of playing the Dallas Mavericks by losing to the Mavs in the final game of the 2010 regular season on Wednesday. The game lost a lot of its drama when both Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili sat out. The Mavs coasted to a win but Dejuan Blair had a monster game with 27 points and 23 rebounds and Garrett Temple showed he can be a spark. Let’s take a look at how these two teams matchup and then I’ll make my Spurs vs Mavs Predictions.
Projected Starters + Matchups
Spurs - Mavs - Advantage
C Duncan - Erick Dampier - Medium Advantage Spurs
F Bonner - Dirk Nowitzki - Big Advantage Mavs
F Jefferson - Shawn Marion - Medium Advantage Mavs
G Ginobili - Caron Butler - Medium Advantage Spurs
G Hill - Jason Kidd - Small Advantage Mavs
Best off the Bench
G Parker - Terry - Even
Spurs vs. Mavs Analysis
A month ago, I would have given the Spurs no shot at this series, but with Tony Parker rapidly nearing better form after about a months rest and Manu Ginobili on top of his game, the Spurs are raising questions as to whether they really do have a chance to advance and even go deep into the playoffs. Remember, San Antonio recently beat a slew of quality opponents including Cleveland and Denver and the Lakers on the road.
The key to this series is Tim Duncan. Duncan has picked up a little bit and shown signs of his old brilliance, but the Spurs need him to consistently play with excellence to win this series. If Erick Dampier comes close to neutralizing the future Hall of Famer, the Spurs are done. Instead, the Spurs need Duncan to not only control the paint – to some degree – but also be efficient on offense. He must command a double team by scoring on Dampier in 1-1 situations. Dampier has given Duncan a lot of trouble in the past because of his size and strength. Duncan must show no fear and score with ease on Dampier. If instead, Tim can only toss in a few buckets here and there or is hesitant to aggressively look for his own shot, things will get really ugly.
This is of course assuming that Manu Ginobili plays at a superstar level. The Spurs need Manu to average 25 points and hold the offense together as he has been doing. No defender the Mavs throw at Manu will be able to stop him, but Caron Butler may rough him up a little bit. In year’s past, Manu has been dubbed the X-factor. This is no longer the case. Manu is everything to the Spurs. Without him, they get swept handily.
Dirk Nowitzki and Jason Terry’s performance will be the largest bearing on this series. If Dirk and Terry are scoring with ease, the Spurs don’t have enough offensive potency to keep up with Mavs. The Spurs must prevent these two scorers from shooting a high percentage which will be a tall task. Dirk is an impossible cover as a 7 footer with the range and mobility he has. He knows how to draw fouls and can shoot over anyone on the Spurs team. Smaller defenders are overpowered by him and post players cannot match his quickness when he draws them onto the perimeter.
Jason Terry is a shooting guard that can quickly turn any game into a blowout with his quick release, easy flowing shooting. Terry presents a degree of quickness and can effectively drive to the rack when crowded. He is fueled by Dirk and Jason Kidd’s talents.
Jason Kidd does a great job of setting up both and presents a notable offensive threat as well. The Spurs need Kidd to be a three point liability, not an additional threat. Most of Kidd’s makes are from open looks so the Spurs need to hope he isn’t hitting a high clip and try to not leave him all alone – difficult with Dirk but they need Kidd to be mediocre at best from 3 point range.
Matt Bonner has continued to be an efficient offensive player for the Spurs and they will need him to pour some more 3 pointers and running floaters and hooks. If Bonner can score, this will force Dirk to work a little more on the defensive end and use energy that he needs for his offense. This may wear Dirk down and sap his energy come the fourth quarter.
Richard Jefferson playing well is not essential for the Spurs to beat the Mavs, but it would a tremendous help. RJ has never completely meshed in San Antonio but all would be forgotten with a prime playoff performance. Richard is best win he attacks the basket so more attempts at the rim would help. He also needs to use his athleticism to assist in rebounding and make Shawn Marion’s path to the basket more difficult. Odds are against Richard performing well, but it’s possible. He must first get confidence and then maintain it.
One of RJ’s biggest weaknesses is between the ears. His performance is almost completely based on momentum and resulting the confidence. Unfortunately, just one mishap can blow his belief in himself. Jeff Van Gundy noted during a national broadcast that Jefferson’s shot was flat – this is true. Jefferson must put more air underneath his shot if he settles for the jumper.
Shawn Marion has fit in well with the Mavs. All his numbers except field goal percentage are down this season, but he is utilized in more of an all around aspect in Dallas. The one area he has really lagged in is three point shooting but shooting from long distance takes away from better parts of his game so he’s probably better off. Marion is ultra dangerous in the open court with Jason Kidd so the Spurs must keep the Mavs in a slower paced game. When they need to sag off someone, it should be The Matrix from outside range. They must also be sure not to let Shawn Marion collect extra rebounds.
Tony Parker is recovering from his month off very quickly, but he’s still a ways away from being in top form. The Spurs will need every bit of his scoring to advance so hopefully his quickness continues to improve throughout the series. When 100%, he is a nightmare cover for Jason Kidd or JJ Barea. He will still pose problems for the two Dallas point guards but the degree to which he is able to take advantage remains in question. I suspect Parker may come into the series looking to prove something as it looks like George Hill has taken his starting spot for the time being. This obviously bodes well for the Spurs.
Coaching
Gregg Popovich has gotten to the point where he is constantly outsmarting himself and over-thinking simple situations. He’s so concerned with micro managing every last second of Tim and Manu’s playing time that he will forget about just winning the basketball game. I’m also frustrated that he won’t give more chances to young or inexperienced players that have a chance to spark the Spurs rather than veteran players who bring nothing to the table. Let’s hope Pop doesn’t play Roger Mason in this series. Mason is a tremendous liability for the Spurs. I’d much rather see Malik Hairston or Garrett Temple than Roger Mason. Thankfully, Michael Finley abandoned ship when things went bad for the Spurs or else he would get significant minutes.
Rick Carlisle has been exactly what Mark Cuban ordered. He’s a steady coach that has quietly turned the Mavericks back into a real threat. The Mavs have kept a nice balance of free flow, fast paced offense and efficient half court sets on the offensive end to go along with a better defensive plan, albeit not as good as under loud barker, Avery Johnson. The nice thing for the Mavs is Rick Carlisle plays the role of a more underscored leader who doesn’t make huge waves within the organization. Carlisle is well respected though. Unlike Popovich, Carlisle doesn’t make too many coaching mistakes and if he does, there won’t be any gaping flaws that stand out. Carlisle is not spectacular, but he is very, very good.
My Prediction
I’m obviously pulling for the Spurs, but in my brain I really do believe San Antonio can beat Dallas in this first round of the 2010 playoffs. Again, Tim Duncan must play like a star but I think all of the Spurs best players – Hill, Duncan, Parker, Ginobili – will be playing at a high level against the Mavs. On the other side, the Mavericks have every reason to believe they can beat the Spurs. Just looking at the season series and records, the Mavs are definitely worthy of being the Las Vegas favorites to beat the Spurs and I too would give the Mavs better odds of winning. But in the end, I really think the Spurs are going to surprise a lot of people and defeat the Mavericks in 6 games.